📊
| Metric | Projection |
|---|---|
| Predicted Score | Arkansas State 27 – Missouri State 24 |
| Win Probability | Arkansas State ~55% • Missouri State ~45% |
| Spread Expectation | Arkansas State covering close line (~-1 to -3) |
| Total Points Expectation | ~51–54 points (Under the listed totals) |
| Key Game Script | Competitive, borderline air-raid passing, handful of miscues |
| Confidence Level | Medium |
🔎 Roster Availability & Player Movement (High Impact)
Missouri State Bears
Portal / Opt-Out Impact: MODERATE (Negative)
- Confirmed out
- DT Ryan Williams – interior run defense loss
- DE Mitchell Toney – edge pressure depth loss
- Transfer portal
- Cash Hudson (OC) – opted out / portal departure
- Net effect
- Defensive front depth weakened
- Offensive continuity impacted entering first bowl game in program history
Missouri State is dealing with more postseason attrition than average, especially in the trenches — a common problem for first-time FBS bowl teams.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Portal / Opt-Out Impact: LOW (Positive)
- No confirmed opt-outs among starting skill players
- Minor injury concerns among rotational OL/DBs
- Starting QB and primary offensive weapons intact
Arkansas State benefits from roster continuity, which matters significantly in bowl prep and execution.
🧠 Quarterback & Skill Position Breakdown
Missouri State QB: Jacob Clark
- Productive season (near 3,000 passing yards)
- Willing to push ball vertically
- Higher variance under pressure
- Takes sacks when interior protection collapses
Arkansas State QB: Jaylen Raynor
- More experienced at FBS level
- Better situational management (3rd down, red zone)
- Lower explosive ceiling, but fewer negative plays
Edge: Arkansas State (stability > upside in bowl settings)
🏈 Key Statistical Matchups (Most Influential Drivers)
1. Arkansas State Passing Offense vs. Missouri State Pass Defense
- Missouri State ranks mid-to-low FBS in pass efficiency allowed
- Defensive line attrition reduces pressure rate
- Raynor should operate cleanly on short-to-intermediate throws
ADVANTAGE: Arkansas State
2. Missouri State Passing Offense vs. Arkansas State Pass Defense
- Missouri State can move the ball through the air
- Arkansas State allows chunk plays but tightens in red zone
- Clark’s success depends heavily on protection consistency
ADVANTAGE: Missouri State (slight, but volatile)
3. Rushing Game vs. Defensive Fronts
- Neither team dominant on the ground
- Missouri State weakened inside defensively
- Arkansas State can grind late drives
ADVANTAGE: Arkansas State (late-game control)
4. Turnover & Sack Differential
- Missouri State more sack-prone
- Arkansas State offense inefficient but safer
- Bowl games often swing on one short-field turnover
ADVANTAGE: Arkansas State
🧭 Situational & Intangible Factors
- Bowl Experience: Arkansas State (third straight) vs Missouri State (first ever)
- Coaching Continuity: Arkansas State stable; Missouri State in transition
- Motivation: Missouri State highly motivated, but emotion ≠ execution
- Travel / Venue: Neutral-site effect minimal
Overall situational edge favors Arkansas State
📈 Game Script Projection
- First half: Missouri State throws early, keeps pace
- Mid-game: Arkansas State adjusts coverage, limits explosives
- Late 3rd / early 4th: Arkansas State leans on ball control
- Final margin decided by:
- One sustained Red Wolves drive
- Or one Missouri State sack/turnover under pressure
🧮 Final Score Projection
**Arkansas State 27
Missouri State 24**
- One-possession game throughout
- Arkansas State slightly more consistent in execution
- Missouri State live underdog, but thinner margin for error
⚠️ Uncertainty Note
This is a medium-confidence projection due to:
- Bowl volatility
- Portal-era roster flux
- Missouri State’s unfamiliarity with FBS bowl environments