Wake Forest vs Mississippi St: Dukes Mayo Bowl Analysis and Prediction
Battle for the Mayo: Wake Forest and Mississippi State Clash in Charlotte
As the sun sets over Bank of America Stadium this evening, the 2026 Duke’s Mayo Bowl presents a fascinating contrast between two programs at very different stages of their evolution. On one side, you have the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-4), led by first-year head coach Jake Dickert, who has successfully transplanted his "Cougar-tough" defensive identity from the Palouse to the ACC.3 On the other, the Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-7), who are looking to validate Jeff Lebby’s high-octane vision after a rollercoaster season in the SEC.
The Dickert Effect vs. The Lebby Leap
The story of Wake Forest’s season has been the immediate impact of Jake Dickert. Taking over a program known for the "slow mesh" and offensive fireworks, Dickert pivoted the Deacons toward a gritty, defensive-first culture. Wake Forest finished the regular season ranked in the top 20 nationally in turnover margin and scoring defense. They aren't interested in a track meet; they want to drag you into deep water and outlast you.
Jeff Lebby’s Bulldogs are the polar opposite. Despite the 5-7 record, State’s offense has shown flashes of brilliance, utilizing a "Veer and Shoot" system that stresses defenses horizontally and vertically.4 For Lebby, this bowl game—attained via high Academic Progress Rate scores—is a massive opportunity to give his young roster a "13th game" environment to build toward a 2026 breakout.
Roster Volatility: Who Is Suiting Up?
The modern bowl season is defined as much by who is missing as who is playing.
- Wake Forest: The Deacons are facing significant offensive hurdles. Star running back Demond Claiborne, who was the engine of the offense with over 900 yards, has opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Additionally, leading receiver Chris Barnes is sidelined with a lower-body injury. This puts immense pressure on quarterback Robby Ashford to be both the primary passer and the leading rusher.
- Mississippi State: The Bulldogs are officially in the "Kamario Taylor Era." With veteran Blake Shapen out, the true freshman phenom Kamario Taylor gets the start. While Taylor is raw, his ceiling is astronomical. He is a dynamic runner who forced SEC defenses to respect his legs all November.
Tactical Matchup: The Spy vs. The Speedster
The game will likely be decided by how Jake Dickert chooses to contain Kamario Taylor. Dickert’s defensive background is rooted in elite linebacker play.5 Expect Wake Forest to utilize Dylan Hazen in a "spy" role for the majority of the night. If Hazen can keep Taylor in the pocket and force him to win through the air against a disciplined secondary, Wake Forest will dominate time of possession.
However, if Taylor can break contain, the Bulldogs have the speed on the perimeter—specifically with Brenen Thompson—to score from anywhere on the field. Thompson is a legitimate deep threat who only needs one or two clean looks to change the scoreboard.
Weather and Atmosphere
Charlotte in early January is unpredictable, but the forecast calls for temperatures in the high 40s with a light breeze. This isn't "cold" by football standards, but the damp Carolina air can make the ball slick. For a Wake Forest team that relies on Robby Ashford’s ball security and a Mississippi State team starting a freshman QB, the turnover battle becomes the most important stat of the night.
Notable Player Predictions
- Robby Ashford (QB, Wake Forest): 170 Passing Yards, 95 Rushing Yards, 2 Total TDs. Ashford will be forced to play "hero ball" with Claiborne out.
- Kamario Taylor (QB, Miss State): 225 Passing Yards, 80 Rushing Yards, 3 Total TDs (2 pass, 1 rush). His athleticism will be the most explosive element on the field.
- Dylan Hazen (LB, Wake Forest): 12 Tackles, 2 TFL, 1 Sack. The defensive heart of the Deacons will be everywhere tonight.
- Brenen Thompson (WR, Miss State): 5 Receptions, 112 Yards, 1 TD. Look for at least one 50+ yard catch-and-run.
The Summary Decision
Wake Forest is the more disciplined, well-coached team under Jake Dickert. They play a brand of football that usually wins bowl games: great defense, strong special teams, and limited mistakes. However, the loss of Demond Claiborne is a massive blow to an offense that already struggled to generate explosive plays.
Mississippi State is playing with nothing to lose. They have the "SEC speed" advantage on the outside and a quarterback in Kamario Taylor who is difficult to simulate in practice. While the Bulldogs' defense has been leaky, Wake Forest may not have the offensive firepower left to exploit it. In a game that should be a physical, low-scoring affair for three quarters, the Bulldogs' superior speed should break through in the fourth
