Tulane vs Ole Miss: Comprehensive Breakdown and Prediction

The Rematch in Oxford: Can Tulane Shock the Rebels in the First Twelve-Team Playoff?

College football history will be written today at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium as the No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels host the No. 11 Tulane Green Wave in the first round of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff. This isn't just a high-stakes postseason clash; it’s a grudge match. These two met back in Week 4, where the Rebels delivered a punishing 45-10 blowout.

But three months is an eternity in college football. With coaching carousels spinning, stars transferring, and key players returning from the trainer's room, this is not the same game we saw in September.

The Sideline Shakeup: New Faces and Double Duty

The biggest story heading into kickoff is the change at the top for both programs.

In Oxford, the Lane Kiffin era ended abruptly with his departure for LSU. The Rebels didn't look far for a replacement, promoting defensive coordinator Pete Golding to head coach. Golding, who helped lead Alabama to a national title in 2020, brings championship experience to the role. By keeping offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. on staff, Ole Miss has prioritized schematic continuity. The message is clear: the high-octane offense that ranked third nationally isn't changing.

Tulane faces a more awkward situation. Head coach Jon Sumrall, the architect of the Green Wave’s 11-2 season and AAC title, has already accepted the top job at Florida. In a display of loyalty (or logistical chaos), he is pulling "double duty"—recruiting for the Gators while trying to mastermind an upset for the Green Wave. While Tulane has already named Will Hall as his successor, the question remains: is Sumrall’s focus entirely on Oxford, or does he already have one foot in Gainesville?

Conference Strength: The SEC Gauntlet vs. The AAC Ceiling

To understand the 17.5-point spread, you have to look at the "conference tax." Ole Miss survived an SEC schedule where eight different teams spent time in the Top 25. Their only loss came at the hands of No. 2 Georgia, and their strength of schedule ranks nearly 30 spots higher than Tulane’s.

Tulane dominated the American Athletic Conference, but their performance against elite competition has been mixed. They notched a solid win over Duke but were soundly beaten by Ole Miss and suffered a surprising road loss to UTSA. The statistical gap is jarring; Ole Miss averages nearly 8 yards per play, while Tulane’s defense sits outside the top 100 in success rate. In a game of physical attrition, the depth of an SEC roster usually wears down a Group of Five opponent by the fourth quarter.

Roster Dynamics: Who’s In and Who’s Out?

Both teams look different personnel-wise than they did in the first meeting.

Tulane’s New Backfield

The most notable absence for the Green Wave is former star Makhi Hughes, who is now at Oregon. In his place, Tulane has found a spark in Jamauri McClure. McClure missed the first meeting against the Rebels but has been on a tear lately, averaging nearly 7 yards per carry over the last month. Paired with Javin Gordon, who leads the team in rushing yards, Tulane has a more dynamic, multi-pronged rushing attack than they did in September.

Perhaps more importantly, left tackle Derrick Graham is back. Graham, a Texas A&M transfer, missed the Week 4 matchup due to an injury. His absence forced a reshuffle of the offensive line that led to a total collapse against the Rebel pass rush. With Graham protecting the blind side, quarterback Jake Retzlaff should have more than the few seconds he had in their last encounter.

Ole Miss: Healthy at the Right Time

Ole Miss enters the playoffs remarkably healthy. Defensive back Antonio Kite is expected to be a full go after missing significant time at the end of the regular season with a hamstring injury. His return is a massive boost for a secondary that needs to contain Tulane's efficient passing game.

Tactical Blueprints: The Path to Victory

The Chambliss Aerial Assault

Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss is the engine of this team. He leads the nation in QBR and has a microscopic turnover rate. He’ll be looking to exploit a Tulane nickel defense that ranks near the bottom of the country in creating contested catches. If Chambliss gets time, he will find open receivers vertically all afternoon.

The Outside Zone Gamble

Tulane’s best chance for an upset lies in the ground game. While Ole Miss is elite at stopping runs up the middle, they have shown a weakness against "outside zone" concepts—runs designed to stretch the defense toward the sidelines. Tulane’s offensive scheme is built to test exactly that. If Retzlaff can use his legs to keep the Rebel edge rushers honest, Tulane can sustain long drives and keep the Ole Miss offense off the field.

The Final Verdict

Tulane is undeniably a better, more cohesive team than they were in September. The return of Derrick Graham and the emergence of Jamauri McClure make them a dangerous out. However, the talent gap between these two rosters remains substantial.

Ole Miss is playing at home, they are healthy, and they are motivated to prove that the coaching change won't slow their championship march. Expect Tulane to keep it closer than the first time around, but the Rebels' explosive playmakers will eventually break the game open.

If you examine the schedule results for Tulane, you see a bevvy of close games with inferior opponents, and big losses to teams that are not close to playoff quality. Most notably a big loss at UTSA, another throw heavy offense. Tulane is simply overmatched here. Look for Ole Miss to make a statement today, a "we dont need Kiffin to win" statement. I would not be surprised to see Ole Miss win by more than 30.

Predicted Final Score: Ole Miss 41, Tulane 20

Recommended Play-

Ole Miss minus the points (up to 19.5)