Saint Louis vs Michigan: March Madness Round of 32

Side & Total

21 Mar 2026 — 3 min read

The Chess Match in Buffalo: Can the Billikens’ "Jazz" Flow Past Michigan’s Massive Frontcourt?

The Second Round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament delivers a fascinating tactical clash this Saturday as the top-seeded Michigan Wolverines face the Saint Louis Billikens at the KeyBank Center. Both teams are coming off explosive triple-digit performances in their openers—Michigan dispatched Howard 101-80, while Saint Louis dismantled Georgia 102-77. This game isn’t just about survival; it’s a meeting of two of the most aesthetically pleasing, high-octane offenses in the country.

The Tactical Tussle: Flow vs. Force

This matchup features a unique coaching subplot: Michigan’s Dusty May and Saint Louis’ Josh Schertz are close friends who share a basketball philosophy often described as "organized randomness" or "offense like jazz." Both systems prioritize spacing, constant motion, and high-IQ playmaking. However, while the blueprints are similar, the physical tools are worlds apart.

Michigan brings an imposing physical presence to the floor. The Wolverines boast a massive frontcourt led by All-American Yaxel Lendeborg and the 7-foot-1 shot-blocker Aday Mara. Michigan’s ability to dominate the paint was on full display in the first round, where they shot a program-record 67.2% from the field. For Saint Louis, the challenge is clear: they must find a way to negate that size disadvantage. The Billikens’ tallest starter is 6-foot-10 Robbie Avila, a "Point Center" who is arguably the most unique player in the tournament. Avila’s ability to pull Michigan’s rim protectors away from the hoop and facilitate from the perimeter will be the x-factor.

Injury Watch and Key Absences

Michigan is playing with a thinner rotation than they’d like. The loss of backup guard L.J. Cason to an ACL tear earlier this month has noticeably impacted their defensive consistency and bench scoring. While they haven't missed a beat offensively, their perimeter defense has shown cracks, as evidenced by Howard’s 14 made threes in the opening round.

On the other side, Saint Louis appears to be at full strength and peaking at the right time. After a shaky end to the regular season plagued by minor injuries, the Billikens looked like an elite unit against Georgia. They currently rank second in the nation in 3-point shooting (39.8%), a weapon they will need to deploy early and often to keep pace with Michigan’s interior scoring.

Player Stat Predictions

Robbie Avila (Saint Louis): Look for Avila to act as the primary engine. Expect a stat line around 16 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists. His ability to hit trail threes will force Aday Mara into uncomfortable defensive positions.
Yaxel Lendeborg (Michigan): The Big Ten Player of the Year is dealing with a lingering ankle issue but showed no signs of slowing down recently. Expect a dominant 18 points and 11 rebounds as he feasts on second-chance opportunities.
Trey Green (Saint Louis): The high-volume marksman will likely be tasked with punishing Michigan’s drop coverage. Anticipate 4+ made three-pointers and a total of 15 points.
Aday Mara (Michigan): Against a smaller SLU lineup, Mara should be a vacuum on the glass. Prediction: 12 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 blocks.

The Summary Decision

This game will be a high-scoring affair, but the outcome hinges on whether Saint Louis can shoot well enough from deep to offset Michigan’s dominance in the paint. The Billikens are statistically elite on both ends, ranking first in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. However, they haven't faced a frontcourt with the combined length and skill of Lendeborg and Mara all season.

Michigan’s defensive lapses since the Cason injury give the Billikens a window to stay competitive, but the Wolverines' sheer efficiency—especially their ability to score 1.0+ points per possession regardless of the opponent—is a daunting mountain to climb. Saint Louis will likely keep this within single digits for the majority of the afternoon, but Michigan’s depth and interior "force" should prevail in the closing minutes.