When/Where: Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025 — DATCU Stadium, Denton, TX

Snapshot
• Navy Midshipmen (7–0, 5–0 AAC): power rushing identity, top-tier time of possession, efficient third downs. Scoring 37.3 PPG; allowing 23.0 PPG. Rush offense 318.1 YPG.
• North Texas Mean Green (7–1, 3–1 AAC): uptempo, pass-leaning attack with explosive balance. Scoring 46.1 PPG; allowing 25.0 PPG. Pass offense 317.6 YPG.

Offense vs. Defense

When Navy Has the Ball


Navy brings one of the nation’s most punishing ground games, churning out 318.1 rushing yards per game behind QB Blake Horvath and RB Alex Tecza. The Midshipmen pair that consistent downhill run game with selective deep shots created off option looks.
North Texas has improved in creating havoc up front (solid sack totals) but still concedes chunk yardage on the ground (around 190 rushing YPG allowed). Expect the Mean Green to commit safeties downhill to win early downs, which can expose them to Navy’s play-action explosives. Red-zone efficiency is a quiet separator here: Navy has finished drives at a high TD rate.

Edge: Slight to Navy’s run game, especially if they stay ahead of the chains.

When North Texas Has the Ball


The Mean Green are rolling behind QB Drew Mestemaker, with a deep skill group that fuels balance and tempo—about 317.6 passing YPG and 178.1 rushing YPG for nearly 500 total YPG. Protection and pace create both sustained drives and quick-strike scoring.
Navy’s defense is stout vs. the run (roughly 117 rushing YPG allowed) and solid on third down, but it has yielded yardage through the air (about 256 passing YPG allowed). If UNT’s perimeter playmakers win one-on-ones and avoid giveaways, they can stress Navy vertically and horizontally.

Edge: Slight to North Texas’ balanced offense, particularly on intermediate and deep routes.

Hidden Factors


• Tempo/possession: Navy wants 10+ play marches and to shrink the game; UNT wants snaps and volume. First-quarter leverage will set the flow.
• Money downs: Both teams are comfortable going for it on fourth down near midfield—expect aggression.
• Ball security and explosives: Small possession margins matter; whichever side wins the explosive-play and turnover battles likely takes control late.

Points-Per-Game Comparison
• Navy: 37.3 scored / 23.0 allowed
• North Texas: 46.1 scored / 25.0 allowed

Matchup Keys

  1. Navy Passing Defense is ranked 118 out of 136 and they are facing a top 5 passing offense.
  2. North Texas rushing defense is ranked 118 out of 136 and they are facing a strong Navy rushing attack.

Prediction


Just look at the keys above. This is tailor made for a lot of points. Look for the over to be either attained or be within a few points by halftime.

Side N Totals Play

OVER 66