Location: Caesars Superdome – New Orleans, LA | Kickoff: 5:30 PM ET (ESPN) 12/23/25

In the heart of the Pelican State, we have a "Throwback Matchup" between two former conference rivals. Unlike the early game, the New Orleans Bowl features a refreshing lack of opt-outs. Both teams have largely kept their rosters together, creating a "best-on-best" scenario that is becoming rare in the modern bowl era.

The Personnel Shift: The Anderson Era Begins

The headline here is the coaching change at Southern Miss. Charles Huff parlayed a strong season into the Memphis job, but the Golden Eagles didn't blink, immediately naming Blake Anderson as the permanent head coach. This move prevented the "transfer portal bleed" that usually follows a coaching change.

  • La’Vell Wright (RB - WKU): Confirmed OUT (Transfer Portal). This is a massive blow for the Hilltoppers. Wright was their "closer," tallying a team-high 10 rushing touchdowns. Without him, WKU becomes almost entirely dependent on the pass.
  • Corey Myrick (S - Southern Miss): Confirmed OUT (Transfer Portal). Myrick was the primary communicator in the Golden Eagles' secondary. His absence is a glaring weakness that WKU head coach Tyson Helton will undoubtedly target with deep shots.
  • Maverick McIvor & Rodney Tisdale (QBs - WKU): Both are Active. WKU has the luxury of two starters. McIvor (shoulder) is the veteran, but Tisdale (Freshman of the Year) provides the mobility that can burn Southern Miss's aggressive 26-sack defense.

Tactical Breakdown and Matchup Analysis

This game will be played indoors on the lightning-fast turf of the Superdome. This environment is "The Lab" for Western Kentucky’s Air Raid. However, Southern Miss brings a Sun Belt-leading passing attack led by Braylon Braxton. Braxton is the definitive X-factor: a 2,800-yard passer who also functions as a primary run threat.

WKU’s defense is the weak link. They ranked 126th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Southern Miss doesn't have a "home run" hitter at running back (their longest run of the season was only 27 yards), but they are methodical. If Southern Miss can keep the ball for 35 minutes, they neutralize WKU's explosive potential.

The problem for Southern Miss is WKU’s third-down efficiency. The Hilltoppers convert at the 23rd-best rate in the country, while Southern Miss’s defense ranks 115th in getting off the field. In a dome game, the team that stays on the field longer usually wins.

Notable Player Predictions

  • Braylon Braxton (QB, Southern Miss): 245 Passing Yards, 80 Rushing Yards, 3 Total TDs. Braxton’s dual-threat ability will be a nightmare for WKU's interior defense.
  • Rodney Tisdale Jr. (QB, WKU): 280 Passing Yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT. The freshman will likely get the bulk of the snaps and thrive on the fast turf.
  • Matthew Henry (WR, WKU): 7 Receptions, 110 Yards, 1 TD. Henry will exploit the vacancy left by Southern Miss safety Corey Myrick.

Decision Summary: This is a coin-flip game, but the "New Coach Energy" for Blake Anderson is real. Southern Miss is playing in their backyard, and they have the superior quarterback in Braxton. While WKU is 4-0 all-time in this series, the Golden Eagles’ ability to force turnovers (+12 margin) will be the difference-maker in a high-scoring dome game.

  • Confidence Level: 62%
  • Predicted Score: Southern Miss 34, Western Kentucky 31