Miami Ohio vs Fresno St: Snoop Dogg Bowl Analysis and Prediction
How did Snoop get a bowl?
In the high-stakes landscape of college football’s postseason, the 2025 Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl presents a fascinating clash of styles, cultures, and rosters. On one side, we have the Miami (OH) RedHawks, a blue-collar program from the Mid-American Conference (MAC) that prides itself on defensive grit and ball control. On the other, the Fresno State Bulldogs represent the high-flying, explosive nature of the Mountain West Conference.
However, as the sun sets over Arizona Stadium in Tucson today, this game will be defined less by the helmets and more by the names not on the jerseys. This is a game of attrition, transfer portal chaos, and the "next man up" philosophy that has become the hallmark of December football.
The Backdrop: Two Paths to Tucson
The Miami RedHawks arrive with a 7-6 record, a season that has been a rollercoaster of emotions. After a dismal 0-3 start, Chuck Martin’s squad rallied to win seven of their last ten, eventually falling in the MAC Championship game. They are the defending Arizona Bowl champions, having dismantled Colorado State here just a year ago. For the RedHawks, this isn't just a bowl game; it’s a business trip to a familiar office.
Fresno State enters at 8-4, a solid campaign in the first year under head coach Matt Entz. The Bulldogs have been a model of consistency in the Mountain West, boasting a defense that has allowed its fewest yards per game since 1988. They come in with "continuity" as their primary weapon—a rare luxury in the current era of the transfer portal.
The Roster Crisis: Miami (OH) Shorthanded
The single biggest storyline heading into kickoff is the decimated state of the Miami (OH) depth chart. If you are looking for why the betting lines have shifted toward Fresno State, look no further than the RedHawks’ locker room.
- Quarterback Carousel: The departure of seven-year veteran Dequan Finn in mid-November for "NFL prep" left a massive void. While freshman Thomas Gotkowski showed flashes of brilliance in late-season wins, he was knocked out of the MAC Championship with an injury. While he is expected to try and go today, the safety net is Henry Hesson, a veteran with limited meaningful reps.
- The Loss of the "Kam" Era: Wide receiver Kam Perry was the engine of this offense. Leading the nation in yards per catch (23.0) and nearing the 1,000-yard mark, his decision to enter the transfer portal is a devastating blow. Without him, Miami loses its only true vertical threat.
- Defensive Holes: The RedHawks' defense, which ranks 3rd in the nation with 40 sacks, will be without its leader in that category. Adam Trick (8.5 sacks) has opted out. Additionally, starting cornerback Mychal Yharbrough and right tackle Drew Terrill are also out.
The Bulldogs’ Advantage: Stability
In contrast, Fresno State is nearly at full strength. Matt Entz has managed to keep his roster remarkably intact. Aside from safety Jayden Davis entering the portal, the Bulldogs' core remains.
E.J. Warner, the son of Hall of Famer Kurt Warner, leads the charge. While his stats (1,811 yards, 12 TDs, 11 INTs) aren't eye-popping, his experience in a pro-style system is a major advantage against a Miami secondary missing key pieces. On the ground, Rayshon Luke and Johnathan Arceneaux provide a dynamic 1-2 punch that should find success against a Miami defensive line missing its best pass rusher.
Key Matchups to Watch
1. Fresno State's Defensive Front vs. Miami's Reshuffled O-Line
Finn Claypool, the Bulldogs' defensive end who transferred from the FCS level and dominated the Mountain West with 6.5 sacks, will be licking his chops. Miami is missing star right tackle Drew Terrill. If Claypool can collapse the pocket against an inexperienced replacement, Miami’s young quarterback—be it Gotkowski or Hesson—will have no time to find second-tier receivers.
2. The "Snoop Dogg" Factor and Field Conditions
Tucson in late December is beautiful. The forecast calls for temperatures around 65°F at kickoff with a light breeze. This environment favors a passing game, which theoretically helps Fresno State. However, the Arizona Stadium turf can get slick as the dew sets in during the second half, which could lead to the "smash-mouth" football Chuck Martin prefers.
3. Third Down Efficiency
Miami ranks 117th nationally in 3rd-and-4th down success rate. They are a team that lives in 3rd-and-long. Fresno State’s defense is top-60 in the country at getting off the field. If Miami cannot stay "on schedule" with their run game (Jordan Brunson), they will be forced to punt repeatedly, giving Warner more opportunities to chip away at the scoreboard.
Notable Player Predictions
- E.J. Warner (QB, Fresno State): Expect a steady, mistake-free game. With Miami missing their top pass rusher, Warner will have time.
- Stat Projection: 210 Passing Yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs.
- Jordan Brunson (RB, Miami OH): He is the heart of the RedHawks right now. He’ll get 20+ carries because he has to.
- Stat Projection: 95 Rushing Yards, 1 TD.
- Finn Claypool (DE, Fresno State): He is the most talented defensive player on the field today.
- Stat Projection: 2.5 Sacks, 1 Forced Fumble.
- Thomas Gotkowski (QB, Miami OH): If he plays, he will be under immense pressure.
- Stat Projection: 130 Passing Yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs.
Summary and Analysis
When you look at this game on paper, it’s a battle of two top-tier defensive units. Both teams allow roughly 20–22 points per game. In a normal season, this would be a 17-14 nail-biter.
However, the opt-outs and injuries for Miami (OH) are simply too significant to ignore. Losing your starting QB, your 1,000-yard receiver (who was a national leader in explosive plays), your best offensive lineman, and your best pass rusher is a recipe for disaster in a bowl game. Fresno State’s continuity under Matt Entz gives them a massive psychological and tactical edge.
Miami will try to slow the game down, running the play clock to under five seconds every snap, hoping to win a 13-10 "ugly" game. But eventually, the talent gap created by the transfer portal will show. Fresno State has the better quarterback, the healthier roster, and the motivation to give Entz his first bowl win.
Pay attention to who Miami starts at QB. If its Hesson, he looked awful in game play this year, which is why Miami went to the redshirt freshman. If Miami starts Hesson, take Fresno St - the points up to -9.5.
