Coastal Carolina vs Louisiana Tech: Independence Bowl Analysis and Prediction
Independence Bowl Deep Dive: Roster Depletion vs. Home State Pride
As the Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl kicks off today in Shreveport, the matchup between Louisiana Tech (7-5) and Coastal Carolina (6-6) looks drastically different than it did just three weeks ago. Between a flurry of transfer portal entries, season-ending injuries, and a coaching staff in total transition, this game has become a true test of depth and coaching adaptability.
The Great Opt-Out Exodus
Both rosters have been hit hard by the "December Carousel." Here is a breakdown of the notable absences that will fundamentally change the flow of today’s game:
- Coastal Carolina: The Chanticleers are in survival mode. Beyond the firing of head coach Tim Beck, they are missing their primary offensive line protection. LT Nick Del Grande (the team's highest-graded pass blocker) and RT Joseph Hanson are both out, having entered the portal or dealing with late-season injuries. In the secondary, safety Dante Thomas and corner Myles Mooyoung are questionable-to-out, leaving a massive void in a unit that already ranked 113th in passing defense.
- Louisiana Tech: The Bulldogs haven't been spared, particularly on the defensive side. They will be without starting safeties Michael Richard (603 snaps) and Jacob Fields (775 snaps), as well as standout linebacker Mekhi Mason (675 snaps), all of whom are portal-bound. Offensively, they lost backup QB Evan Bullock to the portal, though he was already playing behind current starter Trey Kukuk.
Quarterback Uncertainty & The "Under" Edge
The most critical factor for bettors and fans today is the sheer lack of continuity at quarterback.
- Louisiana Tech: Trey Kukuk is making just his third start of the year after Blake Baker suffered a season-ending ACL tear in Week 11. Kukuk is a dynamic runner (nearly 500 rushing yards), but his passing efficiency remains a question mark.
- Coastal Carolina: Starter Samari Collier is highly unlikely to play (knee), which hands the keys to Tad Hudson. Hudson has struggled significantly under pressure, throwing 5 interceptions against just 4 touchdowns this season.
With both teams missing key defensive starters and starting fresh at QB, expect both coaching staffs to call a very conservative game early. Tech will likely lean on the ground game to avoid testing their depleted safety group, while Coastal will struggle to move the ball behind a patch-work offensive line.
Expert Betting Tip: Look strongly at the First Half Under 24.5. With new QBs and missing offensive linemen, the first 30 minutes are likely to be a "feeling out" period marked by heavy rushing and short possessions.
Tactical Summary: Why Tech Holds the Edge
Despite their defensive losses, Louisiana Tech has the ultimate trump card: home-field advantage and a winning culture in Shreveport. They are playing in their own backyard, and unlike Coastal—who is playing for an interim coach after three straight losses—the Bulldogs are 5-1 in their last six games. Coastal Carolina's defense is currently ranked 130th against the run, which is a disastrous matchup against a Louisiana Tech offense that averages nearly 200 rushing yards per game.
Notable Player Predictions
- Trey Kukuk (QB, LA Tech): He will be the primary playmaker. Projecting 170 passing yards, 95 rushing yards, and 2 total TDs.
- Clay Thevenin (RB, LA Tech): Against the nation's 130th-ranked run defense, he should feast. Expect 125 rushing yards and 2 TDs.
- Tad Hudson (QB, Coastal): Facing a Tech defense that still has All-American Jakari Foster, Hudson is in for a long day. Projecting 145 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs.
- Jakari Foster (S, LA Tech): Even with his safety partners gone, Foster remains. Look for 1 interception and a tackle for loss.
Final Score Prediction
Louisiana Tech: 34
Coastal Carolina: 13
Confidence Level: 85%
Summary of Decision: The combination of Coastal’s coaching vacuum, missing offensive tackles, and porous run defense creates a "perfect storm" for Louisiana Tech. While the Bulldogs have portal losses in the secondary, their offense is perfectly built to exploit Coastal's weaknesses on the ground and run away with this game in the second half.
