Location: FAU Stadium – Boca Raton, FL | Kickoff: 2:00 PM ET (ESPN) 12/23/25
The Boca Raton Bowl, affectionately dubbed the "Bowl of Beans" this year, is a fascinating case study in program momentum. On one side, Jeff Brohm’s Louisville Cardinals represent the high-ceiling potential of the ACC, a team that notched two wins over College Football Playoff-bound opponents (Miami and James Madison) and ended their season with a cathartic 40-0 destruction of Kentucky. On the other side, the Toledo Rockets enter as a program in total administrative flux, led by an interim staff and missing the heartbeat of their defensive unit.
The Roster Attrition: Who is Missing?
The biggest story in this game is the "Poaching of the Rockets." Toledo was a victim of its own success this season, leading to the departure of head coach Jason Candle to UConn. While QB Coach Robert Weiner takes over as interim, he is doing so with a deck that has been severely thinned by the transfer portal and injuries.
- Malachi Davis (EDGE - Toledo): Confirmed OUT (Transfer Portal). Davis was the primary engine of the Rockets' pass rush. Without him, Louisville’s Miller Moss—who thrives in a clean pocket but struggles under duress—will have all day to scan the field.
- Vince Kehres (Defensive Coordinator - Toledo): Confirmed OUT (Hired by Syracuse). The loss of the defensive architect is perhaps more damaging than any single player. Kehres’s scheme was the reason Toledo led the MAC in defensive efficiency.
- Tucker Gleason (QB - Toledo): Doubtful/OUT (Injury). Gleason’s late-season leg injury means the Rockets will likely start freshman Kalieb Osborne. Osborne has high-end mobility but zero experience against a secondary of Louisville's caliber.
- Wesley Bailey & Rene Konga (DL - Louisville): Confirmed OUT (NFL Draft Opt-outs). These are the two primary losses for the Cardinals. Bailey and Konga were the anchors of a front seven that dominated the line of scrimmage against Kentucky. Their absence creates a potential "soft spot" in the interior that Toledo’s run game might try to exploit.
- Chris Bell (WR - Louisville): Confirmed OUT (ACL Surgery). Bell was the vertical threat that opened up the underneath routes for Caullin Lacy.
Tactical Breakdown and Matchup Analysis
The weather in Boca Raton is forecasted to be a humid 80 degrees with a "decent chance for rain." This favors the more physical team, which is undeniably Louisville. Despite the loss of Bailey and Konga, the Cardinals’ depth chart is populated by former four-star recruits who have been waiting for this "audition" for the 2026 season.
Toledo’s path to victory involves "The Osborne Gamble." Since Kalieb Osborne is a bit of an unknown, the Rockets must use his legs to neutralize Louisville's aggressive blitz packages. However, Louisville’s defense allowed a Conference-low in passing touchdowns. If the Rockets can't move the chains on the ground, this game could get away from them by halftime.
For Louisville, the game plan is "Miller Moss Unplugged." Moss has already announced he is staying for 2026, and with Caullin Lacy (the Senior Bowl invitee) choosing to play, the connection between those two will be the primary focal point. Toledo’s secondary, while veteran-led, has not faced a receiver with Lacy's suddenness and route-running precision.
Notable Player Predictions
- Miller Moss (QB, Louisville): 330 Passing Yards, 4 TDs. Moss will exploit the lack of a consistent pass rush from Toledo’s depleted front.
- Caullin Lacy (WR, Louisville): 11 Receptions, 145 Yards, 2 TDs. With Chris Bell out, Lacy will see a target share north of 35%.
- Kalieb Osborne (QB, Toledo): 145 Passing Yards, 65 Rushing Yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs. The freshman will show flashes but will succumb to the speed of the Louisville secondary.
Decision Summary: Louisville is simply too deep and too motivated. While Toledo has a proud bowl history (winning their last two Boca Raton appearances), those teams weren't missing their head coach, defensive coordinator, and starting quarterback simultaneously. The "talent gap" in this game is exacerbated by the "stability gap."
- Confidence Level: 88%